The Periodic Table of Irrational Nonsense

Posted on Wed 12 January 2011 in General • Tagged with Irrational Nonsense, Periodic TableLeave a comment

Irrational
Table

A tick-box for the rationalists, ‘The Periodic Table of Irrational Nonsense‘, lists all things non-scientific, loopy, and daft from Big Foot to Exorcism, Mothman to Poltergeist, etc. It’s all here, except for maybe Reality Television and the ‘X-Factor’, but it all kinda make sense, even if it does take the fun out of things.

Click on the above picture to see the full Table or try here.


Relativity??? Its applicable to all what we see...!!!

Posted on Wed 05 January 2011 in General • Tagged with human nature, relativityLeave a comment

I believes that there are some laws in nature which are co-related to every segment.
whether it is physics or general life or biology or human psyche.

All are related to the same laws.
Consider the "theory of relativity" by Einstein. Very great effort to solve the mystery of our world.
Anyway , we know that in relativity means we can’t go beyond the speed of light. As speed of light is related to mass.

If we progressively increase our speed and approaching speed of light, then our mass started increasing(as force applied to increase the speed has converted into mass) and...as speed of light independent(it will be same if you go in the direction of light or opposite of that) then... mass will started increasing to infinite. But we can't allocate resources to maintain the speed of infinite mass at the speed of light.
SO we can't achieve it.

if we are thinking in this universe then we have to change our universe , find else universe which has some diff set of rules.

In the very same way...
In market share warfare, Market leader has always a dream of 100% market share. But there are competitors which are not allowing him to do so. Market attackers, followers and niche marketers are always there.

Even then if as a market leader if we want to increase market share, then up-to certain point it will increase, but after then our marginal cost will start eating our marginal profits. making our dream harder and harder (just like the increasing mass in case of theory of relativity) to achieve.

same in real life... up-to certain point we can face the situation or defend or enjoy or...etc.
example:
we can't remove poverty from the world by having some utopian ideas like... lets every individual starts saving 1Rs each day
and give them for the benefit of the world.

we can't just go thinking like above. We have to acknowledge some RULES that our universe has put on US.

but..
but..
as a human nature...
its natural question comes into mind my as well as your mind ..that.. still is there anyway to achieve those utopian idea???


10 Principles for a Black Swan-proof World - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb(NNT)

Posted on Tue 09 November 2010 in General • Tagged with 10 principles, fooledbyrandomness, Nassim Nicholas TalebLeave a comment

I will strongly recommend you to read his book "Fooled By randomness" to understand the following passage. This was released by NNT at time of recent financial crisis. Black swan is preferred as an event which is unexpected, but we can't denied its presence. We have to prepared for such events.

website of NNT http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs.

Principles 1, 2, 7 are more talking about Governing externalities. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Those people in high positions (like CEO, managers etc) are taking more risk with people's money because their risk is subsidized. These people must consider their responsibilities because after fault has been done that must not be socialized, that is people are not required to pay for their sins.(as we have seen bailouts of Lehman……..). While in banking system which is built on fiat money, is very much fragile and so that there is no need of confidence in that, we just require kill the leverage, that is we need to kill the source of it, which is our centralized non-robust banking system.

Principles 3, 4, 6, 9 are more related to Authoritative constraints. We need to understand that our decision making should not be affected by external factors, specially those whom we called "experts"! because we can easily become confused by their magical words.

Principles 5, 8, 10 are talking about the SIMPLICITY, we need to understand it because it is very basic biology of nature also.

i know you are becoming impatient or confused. If you have read NNT's book then you will easily understand it.

NNT gave 10 principles to protect our world. This is particularly about making way for CAPITALISM 2.0 by helping "what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalizing the economics and business schools establishments, shutting down the "Nobel" in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties."

"then we will see an economic life closer to out biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news." - by NNT.


Japan- Active Financial Volcano

Posted on Tue 05 October 2010 in General • Tagged with crisis, JapanLeave a comment

Japan- Active Financial Volcano

Hey, can you raise any question about economy of japan. At first, surly not. even i were not raise question until the assignment of finance class was given to me.

that assignment was to analyze the prominent index of any country. i have chosen to work on Netherlands, as it was the first nation where first modern banking system was established in 1600 and first multinational company of the world…
can you guess the name of that company….
that company was "Dutch East India Company" …. This company has given annual average return of about 18-20% for 200yeas.

anyway…lets come to topic. I have compare the return anaylsis of benchmark index of Netherlands(AEX) with 5 others…
i have taken Nikkie225 also.

But i was shocked to see the annual retruns on the time horizon of past 12years.
BSE has given 460Rs against investment of 100Rs in 1998, AEX of Netherlands given 140Rs in the same way… DJI(Dow jones Industrial Average) has given around 135Rs…but i schooled to see….Nikkie225 has given just 46Rs against the investment of 100Rs in 1998.

See the chart for the explanation.

According to me…Japan did a serious mistake in 1985, on 22Sep by signing Plaza Accord. In which governments of FRANCE, WEST GERMANY, UNITED STATES, JAPAN, UNITED KINGDOM , to depreciate the US Doller in relation to Japanese yen and German Deutsche mark by intervening markets.
Of course US has setup all this arrangement, to save its exports(to redure trade deficit), as their main exports such as Automobile and others are not able to stand against the Production capacity of Japan and Germany.

But in that condition why any country agreed to appreciate its currency. But they did it.
Yen's Appreciation hit the export sector: Economic growth rate was 4.4 in 1985 was dropped to 2.9 in 1986.
on that to offset the stronger yen, the BANK OF JAPAN has reduced the interest rate form 5% to 2.5% with the stimulas package. This has turned to the biggest financial bubble in the history of Japan(like we have just seen with US-its housing bubble and its burst).
To respond it, govt has again raise rates to 6%in 1989-90. After that market collapse.

See the chart of Nikkie225 on the time horizon of 1985-2010. Since then the fall is continue at present.

From 1990-2000 money around 25% of GDP has been provided to the system. But mistake they did was….they were not checked the accountably of the projects,and their investment gone like..digging hole and then filling them activity.(source: Ministry of Japan)

anyway… to fund them they have used Public pension fund's money… at present its about to end…. see the chart.

How will japan fund their budget in future? one day…. foreign debt will become unbearable. is this is a volcano which is active and nobody is recognizing it… or imagine the situation… Greece case happen with Japan in next 5years.

But at last…. i wish to see next crisis in form of "Currency Crisis" …(downfall of dollar and other big currency)
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"Cerrado miracle", can we make it happen in india???

Posted on Mon 06 September 2010 in General • Tagged with brazil, brazil's savannah, cerradoLeave a comment

Cerrado: Brazil's Savannah

In Brazil; they have made a miracle in the savannah. 30 years ago; this place was considered as economically meaningless, and nobody has thought to change it.

But Brazilians has done this; they turned this Savannah into world top agriculture land. This land contains huge amount of acidity in it. so how did they overcome with it.

In 1973, brazilians have formed a public company, named "Empresa Brazilera de Prequisa Agropecuria" (Embrapa) or " Brazilian Agriculture Research Corporation".

They went everywhere, went to US and other part of world to bring latest in agriculture and irrigation techniques, but this didn't work in Cerrado. Earlier attempt gone fail.

It took 30 years for them to learn, to make cerrado into miracle.
30 years ago, brazil was food importing country but at present;
is No 1 in exporting Orange juice, sugar, chickens, beef
no 2 in exporting soyabeans, maize
and for your information, all this has been achieved by "not cutting" amazon jungle.
amazon is 1000km away from this dry place, cerrado. At present, cerrado accounts for 70% agriculture output of brazil.

How Embrapa and brazilians made this happen?

Father of green revolution, Norman Borlauge told the new york times that "nobody thought these soils where going to be productive"

1st they understood that this soil is acidic, so make it neutral,how? ans is as we did in our chemistry lab, simple,contact it with "lime".
in late 1990s,they were pouring 14m-16m tonnes of lime/year to 25m tones of lime in 2003-04.

2nd to save cost of fertilizer????
for that they bred varieties of "rhizobium", a bacteria which helps to fix nitrogen in land.

3rd, how to feed livestock?
ans is, they went to africa and brought a grass called "brachiaria", by cross breeding they created new variety "braquiarinha" which produces 20-25tonnes of grass per hectare, many times of native cerrado grass and three times of african brachiaria. 30 years ago it took 4years to raise a bull for slaughter, now only 18-20months.

4th. .. they turned soybean into tropical corp.???
Soyabean has native of north-east asia, and temperature-climate sensitive crop. They did it by genetic engineering. now they are able to generate two crops year.

from this lesson we can learn; how to improve our agri output.
we have to invest in latest latest irrigation and genetics engineering. but use of proper technique we can easily double the output. We are having 2nd largest arable land in this world and have the potential to double the arable land by such techniques.

We have to follow- "System approach", means improving soil, crop, irrigation, distribution of final output. If this is done so, they only we will achieve second green revolution.